This past year, rising mortgage rates have slowed the red-hot housing market. Over the past nine months, we’ve seen fewer homes sold than the previous month as home price growth has slowed. All of this is due to the fact that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has doubled this year, severely limiting homebuying power for consumers. And, this month, the average rate for financing a home briefly rose over 7% before coming back down into the high 6% range. But we’re starting to see a hint of what mortgage interest rates could look like next year.
Inflation Is the Enemy of Long-Term Interest Rates
As long as inflation is high, we’ll see higher mortgage rates. Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen indications that inflation may be cooling, giving us a glimpse into what may happen in the future. The mortgage market is eagerly awaiting positive news on inflation. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says:
“The housing market is expected to face continued uncertainty heading into 2023 as consumers, financial markets, and policymakers work through their respective challenges in today’s economy. . . . we are watching for any additional stability in the MBS market, signs of cooling inflation, and/or less aggressive Federal Reserve action to give us confidence that mortgage rates are past their peak.”
What Does This Mean for the Future of Mortgage Rates?
As we get through the inflation battle and start to see that coming down, we should expect mortgage rates to follow. We’ve seen nods of this over the past couple of weeks. As the Federal Reserve works to bring inflation down, mortgage rates will come down as well. Bill McBride from Calculated Risk says, “My current view is inflation will ease quicker than the Fed currently expects.” As we look toward next year, we certainly hope he’s right. Mortgage rates will come down – it’s just a matter of time. The hope is we continue to see more positive news on inflation, and that’ll bring mortgage rates down. This will give prospective homebuyers more buying power and lead to more homeowners throughout the country.
Hey Inland Empire, I’m Candice Newman! I’ve had the incredible fortune of being born and raised in this amazing community, and I couldn’t imagine living anywhere else. I currently live in Alta Loma with my husband, Jonathan, our son, Trevor, and our dog, Ruger! I’m a real estate agent with a passion for finding new places to explore in the Foothill Communities. When I'm not selling homes, you can find me cheering my son on at his baseball games, exercising, spending time in our local mountains, heading to the lake, cooking, or watching the Dodgers slay the Giants (I was born and raised an Angels fan, but the Dodgers have taken over the household!). I'll never have enough Mexican food and Italian food in my life. I’m looking forward to connecting with you soon! See you around town! Candice.Newman.Realty@gmail.com | (909)367-3280 DRE: 01924842
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